Are Chelsea Real Contenders for the Title?

Chelsea’s Potential Title Challenge

If Chelsea, currently in second place, manages to secure a victory against top-placed Arsenal at Stamford Bridge this Sunday, they would close the gap to just three points from their London rivals. The question arises: Can Enzo Maresca’s team defy expectations and clinch the Premier League title this season?

Arsenal is currently on a remarkable 16-match unbeaten streak, desperately seeking to end a 21-year drought without a Premier League trophy and last faced defeat on August 31 against Liverpool. Chelsea, on the other hand, is riding high on their own six-game unbeaten streak after a commanding 3-0 Champions League triumph over Barcelona, which has boosted their confidence ahead of the clash.

Maresca emphasizes the long-term view, noting, “We still have five or six months to go. What matters is where we stand in February or March, and we will assess from there.”

Let’s explore whether the statistics support Chelsea’s ambitions for a serious title bid.

Assessing Chelsea’s Consistency

So, is Chelsea consistent enough to mount a title challenge?

In summary, while Chelsea is demonstrating positive form, it may not be sufficient for a championship run. Their attacking prowess remains comparable to that of Arsenal, even amidst the absence of Cole Palmer due to injury. However, the Gunners’ strong defensive metrics give them the edge.

Historically, a team vying for the title must maintain a +1 non-penalty expected goals (npXG) margin per match, which indicates consistently creating more opportunities than conceded. Arsenal is the only team this season achieving this level of consistency, leaving Chelsea to focus on tightening up defensively.

Marc Cucurella acknowledged that their inconsistency against seemingly easier opponents has resulted in dropped points, stating, “I think we have lost points against teams where we should have won.”

Interestingly, Arsenal’s remarkable defensive record casts a shadow over Chelsea’s past achievements, including the Premier League records for most clean sheets (25) and fewest goals conceded (15) set by Jose Mourinho in 2005.

Maresca conceded, “You can see they are very solid defensively. They lead the league and the Champions League, making them the team to beat.” Both teams adopt a patient possession game with high pressing, yet set-piece execution differs greatly, with Arsenal leading the league with ten goals from such situations compared to Chelsea’s eight.

While Arsenal has allowed only three goals from set pieces, Chelsea has conceded four and recorded a significantly higher xG against in these scenarios. This disparity may pose challenges in their upcoming encounter.

To compound Chelsea’s problems, they have struggled against Arsenal in recent matches, achieving only one victory in their last eleven Premier League contests, and the Gunners remain unbeaten in their last six visits to Stamford Bridge.

Key Points:

• Chelsea’s Record Against Arsenal: Chelsea has only won once in their last 11 meetings.
• Arsenal’s Clean Sheet Dominance: They are challenging Chelsea’s historical defensive records.
• Set Piece Effectiveness: Arsenal leads in set-piece goals, and Chelsea’s defense has shown weaknesses.

Can Chelsea Match Arsenal’s Excellence?

Is Chelsea capable of reaching the heights of Arsenal, or are they hindered by their youth?

Based on key statistics, Chelsea undoubtedly shows traits of a top-four team. Their performance under Maresca has improved ostensibly this season, even with the long-term injury of key defender Levi Colwill. The manager has displayed more optimism this season compared to last, stating, “For sure, it’s different compared to a year ago because we’ve spent more time together.”

While he recognizes the importance of the current standings, Maresca reminds everyone that it is still early in the season. The crucial time to evaluate their performance will be in March or April, given that they showed remarkable capability against top teams over the past 18 months.

Maresca is also under pressure to avoid a repeat of last winter’s performance dip, which almost jeopardized their Champions League qualification. This season, however, securing qualification is essential, and the club administration views any title challenge as ahead of the expected timeline.

Significantly, Chelsea has faced inquiries regarding their squad’s youth and rotation frequency:

• They have made 103 changes to their starting line-ups, the highest in the Premier League, averaging over seven alterations for six consecutive matches before the international break.
• The average age of Chelsea’s starting XI last season was recorded as the youngest in a 38-match Premier League campaign.

This season, the average has slightly increased, yet they remain one of the youngest squads among Europe’s elite leagues, which might hinder their chances in a title pursuit compared to the more experienced Arsenal side.

Striker Liam Delap voiced his belief that Chelsea could contend for either the Premier League or the Champions League, echoing team sentiments after their successful run in the last season’s competitions.

In conclusion, while Chelsea displays promise, their youth and inconsistency could ultimately define their season as they prepare to face an informed and resilient Arsenal squad.