South Africa’s FIFA sanction blows Group C wide open: The run-in and key scenarios

FIFA’s decision to dock South Africa three points for fielding Teboho Mokoena against Lesotho has dramatically shifted the dynamics of Group C in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.

The ruling places Benin at the summit with 14 points, edging ahead of Bafana Bafana on goal difference.

 Once comfortable leaders, South Africa now face a high-stakes battle to secure a direct ticket to the global showpiece in Mexico, Canada and United States.

Nigeria and Rwanda lurk just three points back on 11 each, both suddenly alive in the qualification race. 

With two matchdays remaining, the group has become one of the most finely balanced across Africa.

What the run-in looks like

• South Africa: Zimbabwe (H), Rwanda (H)

• Benin: Rwanda (A), Nigeria (A)

• Nigeria: Zimbabwe (H), Benin (H)

• Rwanda: Benin (H), South Africa (A)

Projected scenarios

• A perfect finish for South Africa would put them on 20 points, guaranteeing top spot regardless of other results.

• Assuming Nigeria win both matches: The Super Eagles would climb to 17 points, potentially overtaking South Africa if Bafana slip in either of their games.

• Benin, by collecting four points from their last two games would end on 18, strong enough to top the group unless South Africa sweep their fixtures.

• In case Rwanda stun Benin at home and upset South Africa away: They could reach 17, turning the group into one of the great shocks of African qualifying.

Bafana Bafana’s home advantage in the final stretch is significant, but Rwanda’s resilience and Nigeria’s pedigree make for a dramatic finish.

 For Benin, two away fixtures against direct rivals could define their football history.

The South Africa FIFA sanction has transformed Group C into a four-way sprint for just one automatic ticket.

Every point in October will decide who books a flight to North America and who is left chasing the playoff route.