Could the 40-point Benchmark Be Essential for Premier League Safety?

Overview

The widely held belief that securing around 40 points is crucial for avoiding relegation in the Premier League may once again come into play this season. The performance of West Ham, currently striving to move up from the lower tier of the table, highlights this ongoing concern for clubs teetering on the brink of relegation.

Historical Context

Traditionally, the 40-point milestone has been considered a safety net for teams, offering a sense of security to players, managers, and supporters alike. However, it’s important to note that this figure has not actually been a necessity for survival since the 2010-11 season. Before that, only a few instances occurred where teams were relegated despite achieving at least 40 points, specifically in the seasons of 1996-97, 1997-98, and 2002-03.

Current Standings

At present, West Ham occupies the 18th position in the league, sitting a mere three points behind Nottingham Forest, currently in 17th place. Nottingham recently parted ways with manager Sean Dyche following a scoreless draw against Wolves. Meanwhile, Tottenham, who also dismissed their coach Thomas Frank after a recent match, finds themselves two points ahead of Forest in 16th place.

With only 12 matches left in the season, West Ham has demonstrated in the past their capability for survival. Their coach, Nuno Espirito Santo, has prior experience in leading teams to escape relegation, particularly from his tenure at Nottingham Forest.

Recent Performance

West Ham’s current point total of 24 marks the highest for a team sitting in 18th place at this point in the season since the 2019-20 campaign, where they ultimately avoided relegation by finishing with 39 points. In terms of form, they have emerged as the strongest among the clubs at the lower end of the table, netting three wins to accumulate 10 points over the last five fixtures.

In contrast, Leeds United appears to be gaining momentum, having secured recent victories against Fulham and Nottingham, alongside draws with Everton and Chelsea. On the other hand, Tottenham has struggled significantly, gathering a mere four points from their last 27 available.

Having seen consistent struggles, Nottingham Forest, now without a head coach, has managed only two wins in their last ten matches, leading to concerns among fans of Brighton and Crystal Palace as well. Brighton is currently positioned 14th with 31 points but has been on a poor run, with just one win in their last top-flight match since November 30. Crystal Palace, sitting just above Brighton, has faced a similar fate, winning only once since early December and recently surrendering a two-goal lead against bottom-dwelling Burnley.

The 40-Point Debate

Interestingly, if West Ham managed to secure a victory against Manchester United, they would have tied the record for the highest points total at this stage for an 18th-placed team during a 38-match season. They are currently just one point above the average for teams in that position, but with ongoing evidence suggesting that more than 36 points will be necessary for safety this season, the pressure is mounting.

Notably, West Ham holds the record for the most points (42) in a relegated 38-game season, which occurred at the end of the dramatic 2002-03 campaign after a draw against Birmingham City. In that season, they earned 22 points from their last 12 matches, a trend they have historically maintained.

Throughout their time in the Premier League, West Ham has reached the 24-point mark at this juncture in six different seasons, ultimately escaping relegation in three of those instances. They have previously collected 15 points or more in their last 12 games during the seasons of 2006-07, 2019-20, and 2022-23, while they faced relegation only once with fewer than 15 points (2010-11).

Upcoming Challenges

Looking at the end of the season, West Ham’s schedule includes a critical match against Leeds, who are currently six points ahead. As the Hammers aim to maintain their recent positive trajectory, they may find that the fabled 40-point threshold once again becomes essential to steer clear of relegation into the Championship.