Liverpool 28.9% Likely to Capture Premier League Title

High Chances for Liverpool

According to a research group, Liverpool has the highest odds of winning this season’s Premier League title.

Under the guidance of manager Arne Slot, Liverpool secured the 2024-25 title, finishing a solid 10 points ahead of Arsenal in second place.

The CIES Football Observatory has reported that Liverpool is in prime position to repeat their success, boasting a 28.9% probability of lifting the trophy again.

Title Odds for Other Teams

Following Liverpool, Arsenal is estimated to have an 18.8% chance of clinching the championship, while Chelsea stands at 16.2%. Interestingly, Manchester City, known for their dominance in recent years, is behind them with a 14.4% chance.

Despite being historically one of the most successful clubs in Premier League history, Manchester United is projected to have only a 2.6% chance of winning their first title since the 2012-13 season.

League Odds Overview

• Liverpool: 28.9%
• Arsenal: 18.8%
• Chelsea: 16.2%
• Manchester City: 14.4%
• Manchester United: 2.6%

Other Leagues Insights

The likelihood of winning varies across other leagues as well:

• Scottish Premiership:

  • Celtic – 63.3%
  • Rangers – 28.9%

• La Liga:

  • Real Madrid – 40.6%
  • Barcelona – 29.6%

• Bundesliga:

  • Bayern Munich – 61.4%
  • Borussia Dortmund – 8.8%

• Serie A:

  • Inter Milan – 25.6%
  • Juventus – 18.2%
  • Napoli – 17.4%

• Ligue 1:

  • Paris Saint-Germain – 73.0%

The CIES Football Observatory employs a statistical model that calculates the winning probabilities for clubs across 29 leagues, integrating various factors such as performance metrics and economic conditions.

Notably, Red Star Belgrade leads all leagues with a remarkable 76.2% chance of securing the championship in Serbia.