What does xG forecast for the remainder of the season?

Insights into the Premier League’s Progress

With the season now over halfway through, there is ample data to analyze the performance of Premier League teams and predict how upcoming months might unfold. Expected goals (xG) provides valuable insight into teams’ abilities to create scoring opportunities and defend against their opponents effectively.

The historical data indicates that teams with a significant xG difference—meaning they control games better—tend to experience greater success. So, what do the current numbers tell us? If teams maintain their performance levels, here are some key predictions:

Statistical Predictions

• Title Race: The championship is likely a two-team contest, with Arsenal emerging as the top side in the league and strong favorites to claim victory.
• Champions League Spots: With three spots likely secured, the battle for the remaining Champions League places will be fierce among teams like Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle, and Chelsea.
• Relegation Situation: The relegation contest may have already been settled, as Nottingham Forest and Leeds are performing notably better than West Ham.
• Aston Villa and Sunderland: These teams have exhibited better results than their overall performances suggest, indicating a cooling phase may be ahead as the season progresses.
• Wolves’ Survival: Wolves have shown potential beyond their point tally and will likely avoid becoming the Premier League’s worst team in history.

Arsenal and Their Quest for the Title

For Arsenal’s supporters, there’s good news: the team with the highest xG difference has claimed the Premier League title in three of the last four seasons. The only exception was during the 2023-24 season when Manchester City secured the title despite Arsenal boasting superior underlying statistics. Arsenal may not currently dominate matches as they did previously, and Manchester City also lacks the invincibility of prior seasons under Guardiola.

Manchester United’s Surprising Rankings

The position of Manchester United in the xG rankings may surprise some, especially following the dismissal of coach Ruben Amorim and his low win percentage. Despite this, the team’s performance showed improvement before his exit, and interim manager Michael Carrick steps in with a side exhibiting attributes of a top-six team in recent outings.

xG Versus Points Collected

A comparison of teams’ xG differences against their points accumulated this season clearly illustrates that most teams’ outcomes align closely with their performances. However, Aston Villa, Sunderland, and Wolves have deviated from what their xG numbers suggest, either positively or negatively.

Aston Villa and Sunderland’s Success Rates

Both Aston Villa and Sunderland appear to have met their season objectives early, with Opta providing Villa a 96% likelihood of earning Champions League football and Sunderland a 99% chance of avoiding relegation. Their current standings reflect the goals scored and the defensive successes achieved, aided significantly by Villa’s long-range strikes and Sunderland’s top-tier goalkeeper, Robin Roefs.

Future Challenges Ahead

While both teams may have achieved remarkable feats this season, the sustainability of their success remains in question. Aston Villa must work to secure a lasting position among the Premier League elite, while Sunderland aims to fend off the typical pitfalls that come with a second season in the league.

Analyzing Wolves and Other Teams

Wolves may currently be underperforming, yet they are certainly better than their dismal point total would suggest. Teams like Tottenham and Leeds illustrate that results can often misrepresent actual performance, as Tottenham’s underlying figures were less favorable than their points would imply, while Leeds displayed the opposite.

The xG Measurement’s Imperfections

Though the xG has proven to be a potent predictor of long-term success, it’s essential to recognize that not every aspect of football can be quantified. As we move further into the season, questions arise about whether Arsenal will clinch the title they statistically merit and if Villa and Sunderland will continue to outperform their xG expectations. The answers will unfold in time.