The Changing Landscape of the Ballon d’Or Race

The long-standing dominance of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo over the Ballon d’Or appears to be waning, with Ousmane Dembélé and Rodri taking home the award in recent years. This shift introduces an element of unpredictability to the annual selection process, especially with the stakes heightened by the upcoming 2026 World Cup. As the award transitions to a season-based evaluation, it is timely to examine the leading contenders for the prestigious title.

Harry Kane (Bayern Munich, England)

Harry Kane has solidified his position as one of the clear frontrunners for the Ballon d’Or, following an impressive performance with Bayern Munich this season. Traditionally, the accolade goes to players who excel in multiple competitions, chiefly focusing on their domestic league, the Champions League, and the World Cup.

Currently, Bayern is unbeaten in the Bundesliga and leads the table by nine points, which likely puts Kane in a strong position for the trophy. The striker has netted an impressive 19 goals in the league and contributed five more in the Champions League, along with another five in the DFB-Pokal. If he maintains this form and secures additional trophies, he will bolster his chances for the award. Bayern is also a favorite for the Champions League, and if Kane performs at a high level during the World Cup, especially in a victorious campaign for England, it could tip the scales in his favor.

Erling Haaland (Manchester City, Norway)

Erling Haaland of Manchester City may often be overlooked for individual accolades due to his role as a pure goalscorer, focusing more on finishing than on an all-around game. However, his remarkable goal conversion rate in one of the toughest leagues globally marks him as a premier talent.

So far this season, Haaland has scored 19 goals in the Premier League, with another six in the Champions League, and a staggering 16 in World Cup qualifying (though four of these were from last season). His contributions helped Norway qualify for the World Cup, and a successful tournament debut could significantly enhance his Ballon d’Or prospects. Nevertheless, Norway’s realistic chances of winning the tournament are limited, meaning Haaland may need to clinch several club trophies to stand out amongst his peers. Manchester City is currently in contention alongside rivals like Arsenal in the Premier League and is a contender in domestic cups as well.

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid, France)

Kylian Mbappé is among the top candidates for the Ballon d’Or, representing Real Madrid and France. His scoring rate is phenomenal, with 18 goals in La Liga and nine in the Champions League, making him the leading scorer in both tournaments.

Mbappé’s influential performances have been vital for Madrid, who sit second in La Liga and are on course to advance in the Champions League. He’s also an integral member of the French national team, which is expected to make a deep run in the World Cup. If he can maintain his scoring prowess and assist France in securing another trophy, he will be a strong contender for the Ballon d’Or.

Lamine Yamal (Barcelona, Spain)

Youngster Lamine Yamal from Barcelona might have an outside shot at the Ballon d’Or, yet this season may come too soon for the talented winger. Considered one of the best young prospects in football, he has recorded 23 goal contributions for club and country so far in the 2025/26 season.

Barcelona is performing well, sitting atop La Liga, and they might progress deep into the Champions League while Spain is viewed as a favorite for the World Cup. If Yamal continues on this trajectory and garners significant silverware, he could make history by winning the Ballon d’Or at only 19 years old (he will turn 19 by the award announcement). However, it’s likely he’ll be in contention for the Kopa Trophy instead, celebrating the best under-21 player.

Lionel Messi (Inter Miami, Argentina)

Lionel Messi, a titan in football, already boasts an incredible collection of eight Ballon d’Ors, and it’s improbable he will secure another. Nonetheless, his recent efforts in the MLS during the 2026 season have been noteworthy.

Messi was named the league’s Most Valuable Player, as well as the top scorer and assist provider, leading Inter Miami to its first championship. However, the relatively weaker competition in MLS and the differing seasonal schedules may hinder his chances for another Ballon d’Or. That said, should Argentina triumph in another World Cup and Messi performs exceptionally, it would not be surprising if he garnered another award based on a powerful sentiment among voters.