Defensive Strength and Current Form
After boasting the strongest defense last season but still trailing behind Liverpool in goals scored, it became clear that Arsenal needed to strengthen their attacking output to improve their Premier League title chances this year.
However, conceding only three goals in the first eight matches has elevated their defensive performance to such a high level that they may not need as many goals as previously expected.
At the moment, Arsenal’s attack has improved slightly compared to last season, but it still falls short of the form they displayed during their 2023–24 title challenge, when they averaged 2.4 goals per game.
Players Currently Sidelined
With key creative players such as Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, and Kai Havertz sidelined due to injuries, there is hope that Arsenal’s attacking line will regain its full strength as the season progresses.
Nevertheless, the question remains: Can their defense be strong enough to secure the Premier League title for the first time since 2004?
Historically, only six of the 33 Premier League champions won the title by conceding the fewest goals rather than scoring the most — just 18% of all winners.
The most recent example was Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool in the 2019–20 season, who won the league despite scoring 17 fewer goals than Manchester City.
A Potential Game-Changer
Despite having the best defensive record over the last two seasons, Arsenal still finished as runners-up. What could change this time?
Although the season is still in its early stages, Arsenal appear on track not only to maintain the best defense but potentially achieve one of the most impressive defensive records in Premier League history.
Currently, the team is allowing just 0.38 goals per match, a rate that could lead to a historic low in total goals conceded, possibly breaking the record of 15 goals set by José Mourinho’s Chelsea in the 2004–05 season.
Arsenal are also tracking closely to match that Chelsea team in attacking output, with projections of about 71 goals scored and 14 conceded, compared to Chelsea’s 72 scored and 15 conceded.
Last season, Arsenal scored 69 goals and conceded 34. Their current trajectory shows an improvement of two extra goals scored and 20 fewer conceded.
Championship Contenders
Based on historical averages, Premier League champions typically score 84 goals and concede around 32 over a full season.
If Arsenal maintain their current form, they could emerge as one of the most defensively dominant champions the league has seen.
However, matching Chelsea’s extraordinary defensive achievement from two decades ago remains a significant challenge.
To even approach that record, Arsenal would need to secure clean sheets in their upcoming fixtures against Crystal Palace, Burnley, and Sunderland, matching Chelsea’s tally of three goals conceded after the first 11 matches.
Another key advantage for that Chelsea team was their remarkable streak of clean sheets after a draw against Arsenal — a run that played a major role in their iconic defensive record.
Historical Context and Future Prospects
Chelsea’s sequence of ten consecutive Premier League clean sheets was a record at the time, later surpassed by Manchester United’s run of 14 clean sheets during the 2008–09 season.
Arsenal themselves produced an impressive eight-match clean-sheet streak during the 1997–98 campaign under Arsène Wenger, helping them secure their first Premier League title.
To achieve their ambitions this season, Mikel Arteta’s side will need to replicate — or even surpass — such commanding defensive performances as they push for championship glory in May.